根据市场状况动态切换专家,提升投资组合收益与风险比。
Regime-Aware Portfolio Management via Retrieval-Augmented LLM-Guided Expert Switching

- 用检索增强的LLM分析历史行情,选择最适配的管理专家。
- 股票市场累计收益从26%提至34%,夏普比率从0.74升至0.96。
- 适合追求自适应策略的量化交易者与金融研究者。
金融市场具有非平稳性,单一投资策略的有效性高度依赖于市场环境变化。本文提出一种基于检索增强的专家切换框架,根据历史相似市场情境下各专家的表现动态选择最优策略。采用双流变分自编码器建模资产级与市场整体信息,构建基于检索的知识库存储历史场景与专家表现数据。推理时,指令微调的LLM基于检索证据进行推理,判断最优专家,而非直接生成操作。我们进一步证明了单调性性质:加入局部更优专家不会降低切换机制性能。在加密货币、股票及外汇市场的实验表明,该选择器在三类市场中均取得最高累计回报与夏普比率。例如,在股票市场中,累计收益由26%提升至34%,夏普比率由0.74增至0.96。消融实验证明检索与LLM推理均至关重要,不同专家池规模实验也验证了互补性价值。总体支持检索驱动的专家切换是应对非平稳金融环境的有效方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial markets are inherently non-stationary, making the effectiveness of individual portfolio-management strategies highly dependent on changing market conditions. This work proposes a retrieval-augmented expert-switching framework that dynamically selects portfolio management experts based on their historical performance under similar market situations. A dual-stream variational autoencoder represents asset-level and market-wide information, while a retrieval-based knowledge base stores historical situations and expert performance. During inference, an instruction-tuned LLM reasons over the retrieved evidence to identify the most appropriate expert rather than directly generating portfolio actions. We further establish a monotonicity property showing that adding a locally superior expert cannot degrade the switching mechanism's performance. Experiments across cryptocurrency, stock, and foreign-exchange markets show that the proposed selector achieves the highest cumulative return and Sharpe ratio among the evaluated selection strategies in all three markets. In the stock market, for example, cumulative return increases from 26% for the best fixed expert to 34%, while the Sharpe ratio improves from 0.74 to 0.96. Ablation results confirm the importance of both retrieval and LLM reasoning, while experiments with different expert-pool sizes demonstrate the value of complementary expertise. Overall, the findings support retrieval-grounded expert switching as an effective approach to adaptive portfolio management in non-stationary financial environments.
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