arXiv:2608.28273cs.LG2026-08

跨模式城市出行预测新框架,让不同出行方式数据互通共享。

Learning to Transfer Across Modes: Towards Unified Urban Mobility Forecasting

论文配图:Learning to Transfer Across Modes: Towards Unified Urban Mobility Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建统一区域级空间表示,对齐不同粒度的交通系统
  • 从数据丰富的模式迁移知识,提升数据少模式的预测精度
  • 适合多模式交通系统、数据稀疏场景的预测任务

城市交通系统包含多种共存的出行模式,其需求动态高度相关,但跨模式联合预测仍面临巨大挑战,主要源于空间异质性以及新兴模式历史数据稀缺。现有方法多针对单一模式设计,隐含假设源与目标系统具有兼容的空间结构,严重限制了在多模式场景中的应用。为此,我们提出 extbf{TransMod},一种统一的城市出行需求预测框架,实现异构出行模式间的有效知识迁移。TransMod 构建共享的区域级空间表示,将不同空间粒度的交通系统映射到同一空间,降低结构不匹配与分布偏移。在此统一表示基础上,模型从数据丰富的源模式中学习可迁移的时空模式,并适应至数据稀缺的目标模式,显著减少对目标域长序列历史数据的依赖。在真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,TransMod 持续优于现有方法,在目标数据有限条件下仍保持稳健预测性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Urban transportation systems consist of multiple mobility modes that coexist within the same city and exhibit complex interdependencies, leading to correlated demand dynamics across modes. However, forecasting demand jointly across different modes remains challenging due to substantial heterogeneity in space and the limited availability of historical data for emerging modes. Existing forecasting methods are largely developed for individual mobility modes and implicitly assume compatible spatial structures between source and target systems, which severely restricts their applicability in multi-modal settings. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{TransMod}, a unified framework for urban mobility demand forecasting that enables effective knowledge transfer across heterogeneous mobility modes. TransMod constructs a shared zone-level spatial representation that aligns mobility systems with different spatial granularities into a common space, thereby reducing structural mismatch and distributional shift. Built on this unified representation, TransMod further learns transferable spatio-temporal patterns from data-rich source modes and adapts them to data-scarce target modes, alleviating the dependence on extensive target-domain histories. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TransMod consistently outperforms existing approaches and provides robust forecasting performance under limited target data.

出行预测多模态知识迁移城市交通

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