用语义上下文增强风电突变预测,提升准确性与不确定性评估。
Hybrid Semantic Context-Enhanced Ensemble Learning for Wind Power Ramp-Event Forecasting and Uncertainty-Aware Evaluation
- 将风机数据转为简化文本,生成嵌入向量融入集成模型
- 30和60分钟预测时,语义特征显著提升精度,尤其在不同阈值下稳定有效
- 适用于需高精度风电波动预测的能源调度与系统规划场景
风电突变事件(短时间内功率剧烈波动)难以准确预测,传统模型常遗漏。本文提出一种混合预测方法,通过增强语义上下文信息来提升突变预测能力。不直接用大语言模型预测运行数据,而是将风机数据转换为简化文本,再生成稠密嵌入作为集成模型输入,融合其他特征。在SDWPF数据集上测试了10、30、60分钟预测区间,以未来功率最大变化定义突变事件。对比自回归、LSTM、GRU基线及多种集成配置,使用Diebold-Mariano检验与置信区间验证,调整突变阈值,对嵌入进行PCA压缩,并在Kaggle SCADA与NREL数据上进行外部验证,采用不确定性感知评分。语义上下文特征在多个成对集成实验中带来微小但统计显著的提升,尤其在30和60分钟预测中表现稳定,且在不同阈值下均有效;PCA压缩在部分长时距情形中有帮助。最佳上下文增强集成模型整体排名靠前,但GRU在30和60分钟时仍保持最低突变事件RMSE。外部测试表明误差降低具有泛化性,但增益大小依赖于模型与数据集。预测区间整体覆盖良好,但在突变期间减弱,提示数据分布存在局部偏移。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Wind power ramp events which are sudden, large swings in turbine output over short windows are difficult to estimate, and standard models often miss them. Hybrid forecasting approach is built which augments semantic context to ramp-event forecast. Rather than applying an extensive language model directly to predict turbine operating data, we have implemented a pipeline where turbine operating data is converted to simplified text, which is then converted to dense embeddings to be used as inputs for ensemble models incorporated with other features. Testing runs are performed at multiple intervals within the SDWPF dataset, including 10-minute, 30-minute, and 60- minute horizons, with ramp events constituting the highest change in future power output. We check robustness against autoregressive, LSTM, and GRU baselines plus several ensemble configurations, using Diebold-Mariano tests and bootstrap confidence intervals, and we vary the ramp threshold, compress the embeddings with PCA, and validate externally on Kaggle SCADA and NREL data with uncertainty-aware scoring. The semantic-context features produce negligible yet statistically significant gains over the baselines in multiple paired ensemble runs, most clearly at the 30- and 60-minute horizons where these gains hold across different ramp-threshold definitions, and PCA compression helps in some longer-horizon cases. The best context- augmented ensembles rank near the top overall, though the GRU model still posts the lowest ramp-event RMSE at 30 and 60 minutes. External tests confirm the error reduction generalizes across datasets, but the size of the gain depends on both model and dataset. Prediction intervals cover most test cases well but weaken during ramp events, pointing to a localized shift in the data distribution.
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