用9种未来情景测试交易智能体,看它是否真能适应变化。
FORESIGHT-9: Prospective and Process-Aware Evaluation of Adaptive Trading Agents

- 构建9个从2026年7月出发的反事实市场情景,模拟不同经济事件
- 36次长期运行中,固定权重策略反而赢了31次,暴露自适应模型风险
- 不仅看最终收益,还追踪智能体内部状态是否持续合理
回顾性回测对自适应交易智能体的检验有限:无法排除历史数据污染,无法暴露对单一市场路径的敏感性,也无法揭示长期适应过程中的内部退化。我们提出 FORESIGHT-9,一个前瞻性且过程感知的基准,基于九个从共同的2026年7月信息边界分叉出的可审计反事实压力世界线。每个世界线设定阶段性宏观金融事件与多资产联合锚点;确定性生成器实现轨迹,观测按世界内时间逐步披露。统一合约标准化观测与执行,同时保留各智能体的原生适应循环。我们在36次长期运行中评估了两种自适应交易智能体框架及两种基础模型骨干。智能体排名在不同世界线和骨干间差异显著,固定等权策略在31/36次运行中表现更优。过程遥测揭示了终端收益掩盖的失败:在一个高回报运行中,实时因子库已崩溃,持仓却收敛至等权备选方案,尽管决策记录仍显示活跃因子集合。因此,FORESIGHT-9不仅评估投资组合结果,还检验自适应智能体状态与执行在多种未来情景下是否保持一致。我们发布所有世界线、轨迹、审计日志与再生脚本。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Retrospective backtests provide a limited test of adaptive trading agents: they cannot rule out historical contamination, expose sensitivity to a single realized market path, or reveal internal degeneration during long-horizon adaptation. We introduce FORESIGHT-9, a prospective and process-aware benchmark built from nine auditable counterfactual stress worldlines branching from a common July 2026 information boundary. Each worldline specifies staged macro-financial events and joint multi-asset anchors; a deterministic generator realizes the trajectories, while observations are disclosed according to in-world time. A common contract standardizes observations and execution while preserving each agent's native adaptation loop. We evaluate two adaptive trading-agent frameworks with two foundation-model backbones across 36 long-horizon runs. Agent rankings vary substantially across worldlines and backbones, and a fixed equal-weight policy outperforms 31 of 36 runs. Process telemetry exposes failures that terminal returns conceal: in one high-return run, the live factor library collapsed while executed holdings converged to the equal-weight fallback, even though decision records continued to report an active factor ensemble. FORESIGHT-9 therefore evaluates not only portfolio outcomes, but whether adaptive agent state and execution remain coherent across alternative futures. We release the worldlines, trajectories, audit traces, and regeneration scripts.
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