arXiv:2608.29535physics.soc-phcs.AI2026-08

用大模型模拟人群行为变化,让疫情模型更准更智能。

Integrating adaptive human behavior into epidemic models with large language models

论文配图:Integrating adaptive human behavior into epidemic models with large language models
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用大模型生成随疫情动态调整的接触矩阵
  • 预测表现优于真实移动数据,长周期更明显
  • 可提前评估政策效果,适合公共卫生决策

传染病传播受人类互动模式影响,而这些模式会随疫情变化自我调节,这一直是流行病模型的核心挑战。本文提出通过大语言模型(LLMs)在机制性流行病模型中建模自适应的人类行为。我们构建了面向疫情的生成式自适应行为层(GABLE),将大模型适配为根据疫情与政策状况推断行为反应,并将其转化为分年龄结构的接触矩阵,嵌入机制性流行病模型。以法国新冠数据为例,GABLE成功复现了人群混合模式和年龄特异性接触结构的变化,且具有流行病学意义。短期预测中,由大模型生成的接触矩阵表现优于基于真实移动数据的矩阵,尤其在长时序预测中优势显著。此外,GABLE可拓展至前瞻性政策评估,能在政策实施前预估行为与疫情响应。当输入已执行政策时,模型准确再现了疫情轨迹,并区分出不同政策时机与组合的效果。该方法利用大模型作为灵活的行为层,实现了情境敏感行为生成与流行病动态的耦合。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Infectious disease transmission is shaped by patterns of human interaction, which adapt as epidemic conditions change. Capturing these context-dependent behaviors remains a fundamental challenge for epidemic models. Here, we recast this challenge by using large language models (LLMs) to represent adaptive human behavior within mechanistic epidemic models. We operationalize this idea through Generative Adaptive Behavioral Layer for Epidemics (GABLE), which adapts LLMs to infer behavioral responses to epidemic and policy conditions and translates them into age-structured contact matrices coupled to a mechanistic epidemic model. Applied to COVID-19 in France, GABLE reproduced responses in population mixing and age-specific contact structures that remained epidemiologically informative. In short-term forecasting, LLM-generated contact matrices outperformed mobility-driven matrices derived from real-world mobility data, with the largest gains at longer horizons. GABLE also extends beyond forecasting to prospective policy evaluation by projecting behavioral and epidemic responses to candidate interventions before implementation. When supplied with subsequently implemented policies, GABLE reproduced epidemic trajectories and generated distinct responses to alternative policy timing and composition. By leveraging LLMs as a flexible behavioral layer, GABLE provides a framework for coupling context-sensitive behavioral generation with epidemic dynamics.

流行病建模大模型应用政策评估

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。