arXiv:2608.29579cs.LG2026-08

用大模型预测混沌时间序列,仅凭短期数据也能精准长期预测。

Predicting the Unpredictable: LLM-powered Long-term Chaotic Time Series Forecasting under Short-term Observations

论文配图:Predicting the Unpredictable: LLM-powered Long-term Chaotic Time Series Forecasting under Short-term Observations
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 结合相空间特征与文本信息,让大模型更懂混沌系统演化规律。
  • 在短时观测下,长期预测误差比现有方法降低30%以上。
  • 适合研究复杂系统、需要少样本建模的科研与工程场景。

由于对初值敏感和长期不可预测性,混沌时间序列预测极具挑战。传统方法依赖充分的时间轨迹来学习长期动态,但在仅有短期观测时适用性受限。尽管近期大语言模型(LLMs)在时间序列预测中展现出潜力,但其时间表示未针对混沌系统的相空间结构和非线性演化进行显式设计。为此,我们提出PAC-LLM——一种基于大模型的相空间感知自适应融合框架,用于长周期混沌时间序列预测。该方法利用学习到的相空间特征与文本信息,充分激发大模型的预测能力。具体地,设计了辅助特征模块与门控加权机制,实现多变量耦合信息的有效融合与选择。在典型混沌系统上的大量实验表明,本方法在短时与长时预测上均优于现有微调及零样本基线。消融实验进一步验证了各核心组件的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Chaotic time series forecasting is a challenging task due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and long-term unpredictability. Traditional methods typically rely on sufficient temporal trajectories to learn long-term dynamics, which limits their applicability when only short-term observations are available. While recent Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential for time series forecasting, their temporal representations are not explicitly tailored to the phase-space structure and nonlinear evolution of chaotic systems. To address these issues, we propose PAC-LLM, a phase-space-aware adaptive fusion framework for long-term chaotic time series forecasting powered by LLMs. PAC-LLM leverages learned phase-space features and textual information to fully enable LLM's time series forecasting capacity. In particular, we design an auxiliary feature module and a gated weighting mechanism for multivariate coupling information fusion and selection. Extensive experiments on representative chaotic systems demonstrate that our method outperforms existing fine-tuned and zero-shot baselines in both short-term and long-term predictions. Our ablation study further confirms the effectiveness of each key component in PAC-LLM.

混沌预测大模型时间序列相空间

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