用神经网络修复小盘股相关矩阵,提升投资组合风险控制与收益表现。
End-to-End Neural Shrinkage of Indefinite Pairwise Correlation Matrices for Small-Cap-Inclusive Portfolios
- 设计可旋转不变的神经模型,融合样本重叠信息重构相关矩阵。
- 相比最优基准,年化五日波动率降低20%,夏普比率提升40%。
- 适用于小盘股多头策略,对交易摩擦和回撤控制均有显著优势。
包含新上市和间歇交易证券的小盘股投资组合中,统一回溯期会丢失大量信息。成对完整估计虽保留最长重叠数据,但生成的相关矩阵可能不定,无法直接用于马科维茨优化或标准随机矩阵收缩。本文将旋转不变的神经协方差估计器适配此场景:模型计算掩码感知的边缘矩和相关矩阵代理,处理其带符号特征谱,并使用双向门控循环单元,基于重叠矩阵和特征向量载荷推导因子对齐的有效样本长度。该模型将所有特征值(含负值)映射为正定逆谱,重建的协方差为正定,且端到端训练以最小化五日实现的全局最小方差风险。在2000至2025年的26个滚动窗口上评估,覆盖最多1,500只美国股票,在闭市拍卖模拟器中考虑时点选择、佣金、融资、公司行为与市场冲击。全周期外样本测试显示,神经估计器使年化五日波动率下降约20%,夏普比率提升约40%,在实现风险、风险调整收益与回撤控制上均优于次优模型,且在考虑执行摩擦后仍保持优势,99.9%模型置信集仅保留该神经模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Small-cap-inclusive equity universes contain recently listed and intermittently traded securities, so enforcing a common look-back discards a substantial fraction of the available information. Pairwise-complete estimation preserves the longest overlap for each asset pair, but the resulting correlation matrix can be indefinite because its entries are computed on different samples. This prevents direct use in Markowitz optimization and falls outside the assumptions of standard random-matrix shrinkage. We adapt a rotation-invariant neural covariance estimator to this setting. The model computes mask-aware marginal moments and a pairwise correlation matrix proxy, processes its signed spectrum, and uses a bidirectional gated recurrent unit conditioned on factor-aligned effective sample lengths derived from the overlap matrix and eigenvector loadings. It maps all eigenvalues, including negative ones, to a positive inverse spectrum. The reconstructed covariance is positive definite and is trained end-to-end to minimize five-day realized global-minimum-variance risk. We evaluate 26 expanding-window models from 2000 to 2025 on up to 1,500 U.S. equities in a closing-auction simulator with point-in-time selection, commissions, financing, corporate actions, and market impact. Across the 26-year out-of-sample period, the neural estimator reduces annualized five-day volatility by approximately 20\% and increases the Sharpe ratio by approximately 40\% relative to the next-best covariance estimator. These improvements are consistent across realized risk, risk-adjusted performance, and drawdown control, remain after the modeled execution frictions, and are supported by a 99.9\% Model Confidence Set that retains only the neural estimator.
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