融合卷积与注意力机制,提升南极海冰浓度月度预测精度。
Season-Aware Hybrid Convolutional-Transformer for Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration Forecasting

- 用卷积提取空间特征,因子化自注意力建模时空依赖。
- 在分类与回归指标上优于传统卷积和循环模型。
- 引入季节先验机制,提升短长期预测性能,适合气候研究者。
南极海冰浓度(SIC)预测因复杂的空间结构、长时序依赖性和强季节变化而极具挑战。传统卷积模型擅长捕捉局部空间模式,但难以建模长期时间演变。为此,本文提出一种混合卷积-变压器框架,用于月度南极SIC预测。该框架结合卷积编码进行空间特征提取,以及因子化自注意力机制建模时空依赖。进一步引入两种季节先验机制:月级位置编码,将日历月份信息注入标记表示;季节性时间偏置,鼓励关注周期性相关的历史状态。实验表明,所提框架在分类与回归指标上均优于卷积和循环基线模型。消融实验显示,季节先验机制在短程和长程预测中均带来持续增益。结果证明,结合卷积结构、注意力机制与周期先验信息对南极SIC预测具有显著价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) forecasting is an important yet challenging task due to the coexistence of complex spatial structure, long-range temporal dependencies, and strong seasonal variability. Conventional convolution-based models are effective at capturing local spatial patterns, but often have limited ability to model long-term temporal evolution. To address these challenges, we build on a hybrid Convolutional-Transformer forecasting framework for monthly Antarctic SIC forecasting. This framework combines convolutional encoding for spatial feature extraction with factorised self-attention for spatio-temporal dependency modelling. We further introduce two seasonal prior mechanisms: a month-aware positional encoding that injects calendar-month information into the token representation, and a seasonal temporal bias that encourages attention to periodically related historical states. Experimental results show that the proposed framework achieves better performance than convolutional and recurrent baselines across both classification and regression metrics. Ablation studies further indicate that the seasonal prior mechanisms provide consistent additional gains in both short- and long-horizon prediction. These results demonstrate the value of combining convolutional structures, attention mechanisms, and periodic prior information for Antarctic SIC forecasting.
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