arXiv:2608.30889eess.SYcs.AI2026-08

用历史数据和模拟器预判新电压控制策略是否安全,避免电网事故。

Safety Screening for Voltage Control in Active Distribution Grids via Distributionally Robust Conformal Screening

  • 基于历史数据与模拟器构建鲁棒安全区间,评估新策略风险。
  • 在33/141节点系统中成功识别所有不安全场景,误报率低。
  • 适配不同运行状态,支持渐进式部署,提升安全性与实用性。

在主动配电网中部署新的电压控制策略前,需确保物理极限不会被突破。但面临两大挑战:一是仿真无法涵盖真实电网中的所有扰动、建模误差和设备交互;二是历史数据反映的是旧策略下的运行状态,而新策略可能使电网进入全新工况。为此,本文提出分布鲁棒的共形安全筛查(DR-CSS)框架,利用历史数据和名义仿真器对新策略进行逐场景预部署筛查。对每个新场景,仿真器预测全网电压轨迹,DR-CSS基于历史仿真-现实误差构建共形安全区间,并进一步扩大以应对新策略带来的闭环变化及其与其他控制器的交互影响。据我们所知,这是电力系统中首个结合历史数据与不完美仿真器进行新策略预部署安全筛查的框架。在IEEE 33-bus和IEEE 141-bus系统上对基于学习的电压控制策略进行测试,结果表明DR-CSS能识别所有不安全场景。为减少对安全场景的误报,我们根据运行条件动态调整安全区间,并在每阶段部署后重新校准。该扩展提升了筛查信息价值,支持更安全的主动配电网策略部署。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deploying a new control policy for voltage control in active distribution grids requires evidence that physical limits will be satisfied before the policy is tested on the physical grid. This assessment is difficult for two reasons. First, simulations cannot capture every disturbance, modeling error, and device interaction present in the real grid. Second, historical measurements reflect operation under existing control policies, whereas a new policy may drive the grid into different operating conditions. To address these challenges, we propose Distributionally Robust Conformal Safety Screening (DR-CSS), a policy-agnostic framework for pre-deployment, scenario-by-scenario screening of a new control policy using historical data and a nominal simulator. For each new scenario, the simulator predicts a future voltage trajectory for the whole grid; DR-CSS then constructs a conformal safety interval around this prediction using historical simulation-to-reality errors. The interval is further enlarged to account for closed-loop changes induced by the deployment of the new policy and its interactions with the remaining controllers. To the best of our knowledge, DR-CSS is the first framework in power systems to combine historical data from an existing control policy with an imperfect simulator for pre-deployment safety screening of a new policy. Experiments on the IEEE 33-bus and IEEE 141-bus systems evaluate the deployment of learning-based voltage control policies and show that DR-CSS identifies all unsafe test scenarios. To reduce unnecessary warnings on safe scenarios, we adapt the safety intervals to different operating conditions and gradually introduce new policies with recalibration after each stage. These extensions increase the informational value of the safety screening and support safer deployment decisions in active distribution grids.

电压控制安全筛查鲁棒优化

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