arXiv:2608.30899cs.CV2026-08

让轨迹预测模型学会处理跟踪误差,提升真实场景下的预测可靠性。

Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Forecasting from Imperfect Tracking

  • 用高斯分布建模观测不确定性,融合定位误差与关联模糊性。
  • 在Oxford和VIRAT数据集上,预测精度提升且置信度更准确。
  • 适合部署于实际跟踪系统、需评估预测可信度的场景。

多数轨迹预测模型在理想标注数据上训练并评估,但实际应用依赖不完美的多目标跟踪器。真实观测存在定位抖动、漏检或不稳定检测、数据关联歧义等问题,通常被忽略或通过去噪处理。本文将跟踪产生的可靠性信号视为有用信息,传递给预测器。提出一种即插即用的不确定性感知框架:每个观测状态以高斯分布表示,其协方差通过全方差定律结合检测级定位不确定性和关联级模糊性。现有骨干网络仅做最小改动:输入轨迹作为高斯观测,输出为高斯预测而非确定坐标。为使预测器在结构化噪声下仍稳健,结合时序相关的Ornstein-Uhlenbeck扰动与基于响应的知识蒸馏(教师模型在干净轨迹上训练)。在Oxford Town Centre和VIRAT数据集使用真实跟踪输出,以及ETH/UCY伪检测协议的实验表明,该方法提升了位移精度,并改善了概率预测的可靠性-锐度权衡。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Most trajectory forecasting models are trained on clean annotated histories, and are often evaluated under the same idealized assumption, although practical deployments rely on trajectories produced by imperfect multi-object trackers. The real-world observations exhibit localization jitter, missed or unstable detections, and data-association ambiguity, which are usually either ignored or removed through denoising. This paper instead treats tracking-derived reliability cues as an informative signal to be propagated to the predictor. We propose a plug-in uncertainty-aware formulation in which each observed state is encoded as an uncertain state representation, modeled by a Gaussian distribution whose covariance combines detection-level localization uncertainty and association-level ambiguity through the law of total variance. Existing backbones are adapted with minimal architectural changes: input trajectories are represented as Gaussian observations, and predicted trajectories are produced as Gaussian forecasts rather than deterministic coordinates. To train predictors that remain robust under structured observation noise, we combine temporally correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck perturbations with response-based knowledge distillation from a teacher trained on clean trajectories. Experiments on Oxford Town Centre and VIRAT using real tracker outputs, together with a complementary ETH/UCY pseudo-detection protocol, show that the proposed formulation improves displacement accuracy and the reliability-sharpness trade-off of probabilistic forecasts.

轨迹预测不确定性建模多目标跟踪概率预测

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