arXiv:2608.30976cs.LG2026-08

让人类参与的自动预测系统,能懂人话还自检结果。

A Human-in-the-Loop Autonomous Agent for Industry Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:A Human-in-the-Loop Autonomous Agent for Industry Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用自然语言设定目标,自动调用模型与工具迭代验证
  • 在5个电力价格数据集上点估计误差低于16个基线方法
  • 适合需要可解释、可追溯预测的工业场景

现实世界的时间序列预测很少是一次性模型调用:从业者需定义任务、连接数据与模型、融入领域知识、评估预测合理性并传达不确定性。专用预测模型虽有强数值表现,但通常运行在固定流程中;通用大语言模型代理则常缺乏专门的检查、约束与终止规则。本文提出CastClaw,一种通过面向预测的调度工程构建的人机协同自主预测系统。CastClaw在单一运行时环境中整合数据、专用模型、分析工具、用户输入与版本化执行记录。用户以自然语言指定目标、预测范围、约束条件与假设。系统从提供或模型生成的预测出发,检查时间模式与用户约束;若证据不足,则检索上下文、运行分析或另一模型,或请求用户输入。随后根据明确终止条件保留、修正或升级结果。输出包含最终预测与执行报告,记录输入、证据、操作与修订过程。在5个电力价格数据集设置下,CastClaw的点估计均方误差(MSE)与平均绝对误差(MAE)均低于16个基线。北欧电力交易所案例展示了可追溯的工作流。该系统还在华北某省2026年1月至6月的电力负荷数据上进行了离线验证。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Real-world time-series forecasting is rarely a one-shot model invocation: practitioners must formulate tasks, connect data and models, incorporate domain expertise, assess prediction plausibility, and communicate uncertainty. Specialized forecasting models provide strong numerical predictions but usually operate in fixed pipelines, while general-purpose large language model (LLM) agents often lack forecasting-specific checks, constraints, and stopping rules. We present CastClaw, a human-in-the-loop autonomous forecasting system built through forecasting-oriented harness engineering. CastClaw connects data, specialized models, analytical tools, user input, and a versioned execution record in one runtime. Users specify the target, horizon, constraints, and hypotheses in natural language. Starting from a supplied or model-generated forecast, CastClaw checks temporal patterns and user constraints; when evidence is missing, it retrieves context, runs an analysis or another model, or asks the user. It then keeps, revises, or escalates the result under explicit stopping conditions. The output contains the final forecast and an execution report recording inputs, evidence, actions, and revisions. In this five-dataset electricity-price setting, CastClaw reports the lowest point-estimate MSE and MAE among 16 baselines. A Nord Pool case demonstrates the inspectable workflow. CastClaw was also validated offline on provincial electricity-load data from North China covering January--June 2026.

时间序列预测人机协同工业应用可解释性

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