用粒子滤波思想改进LSTM,更好模拟不完整日志中的流程演化。
A Unified Particle Filter LSTM for Data-Driven Process Simulation

- 维护多个状态假设的加权集合,动态更新潜在过程状态。
- 在三个急诊科数据集上,预测路径、时长和系统行为均优于基线。
- 适合处理日志缺失开始时间等不完整信息的流程仿真任务。
数据驱动的流程仿真旨在从历史事件日志生成真实案例轨迹,无需显式指定底层动态模型。深度序列模型可通过下一步活动概率和条件持续时间分布捕捉复杂时间依赖性。然而,事件日志仅提供过程状态的部分视图,常记录活动完成时间而缺少对应服务开始时间。因此,同一观测流程历史可能对应多个合理的潜在状态,而标准循环模型将每个流程前缀压缩为单一确定性隐藏状态。我们提出统一粒子滤波LSTM(Unified PF-LSTM),维护并逐步更新一组加权的递归状态假设。通过基于矩生成函数的加权均值和学习特征总结该粒子信念,用于预测下一活动的类别分布及当前活动停留时间的条件分位数。该框架可端到端从事件日志数据训练,并在三个真实世界急诊科数据集上评估。结果表明,所提框架在所有数据集上均一致优于所考虑的数据驱动基线,在复杂动态仅部分反映于可用日志的场景中表现尤为突出。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Data-driven process simulation aims to generate realistic case trajectories from historical event logs without requiring an explicitly specified model of the underlying dynamics. Deep sequence models can capture complex temporal dependencies through next-activity probabilities and conditional time distributions. However, event logs provide only a partial view of the underlying process state, often recording activity completions without the corresponding service-start times. Consequently, the same observed process history may be consistent with multiple plausible latent process conditions, whereas standard recurrent models compress each process prefix into a single deterministic recurrent state. We propose a Unified Particle Filter LSTM (Unified PF-LSTM) that maintains and sequentially updates a weighted set of recurrent-state hypotheses. We summarize this particle belief using its weighted mean and learned features based on the moment-generating function. The resulting representation is used to predict a categorical distribution over the next activity and conditional quantiles of the current activity's sojourn time. The framework is trained end-to-end from event-log data and evaluated on three real-world emergency department datasets. The results show that the proposed framework consistently outperforms the considered data-driven baselines in reproducing routing, duration, and system-level behavior across all datasets, with particularly strong gains in settings where complex process dynamics are only partially reflected in the available event logs.
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