用频域提示词让大模型高效适应时间序列变化
Compositional Spectral Prompts for LLM-based Online Time Series Forecasting

- 用频域基底构建可组合的提示词,替代传统记忆检索
- 在线阶段仅更新少量参数,在长周期任务中表现更优
- 适合需要快速适应新模式的实时预测场景
为应对时间序列的顺序性和动态性,在线时间序列预测(OTSF)在多个领域受到广泛关注。现有方法多依赖基于记忆缓冲区的检索策略以适应非平稳环境,但此类框架在长期适应中表现不佳,且难以泛化至未见模式。为此,我们提出CoSPOT,一种基于预训练大模型的在线时间序列预测框架,利用大模型的少样本能力作为核心预测器。为实现高效在线适配,CoSPOT保持大模型冻结,采用基于频域基底的可组合谱提示词,引导模型理解输入的整体分布,从而显著减少在线阶段需更新的参数数量。具体而言,CoSPOT将时间序列分解为频率基底,并根据其幅值组合对应的谱基提示词,使未见模式可通过已学习基提示词的新组合表示。在真实数据集上的大量实验表明,CoSPOT在包括长周期在线阶段和存在显著分布偏移的跨数据集设置等挑战性场景中均表现出优越性与实用性。代码开源:https://github.com/seungyoon-Choi/CoSPOT。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
To address the sequential and evolving nature of time series, the Online Time Series Forecasting (OTSF) task has been extensively studied in multiple domains. Existing research focuses on adapting to non-stationary environments by employing memory buffer-based retrieval strategies. However, we observe that such frameworks struggle with long-term adaptation and fail to generalize to unseen patterns. To this end, we introduce CoSPOT, an LLM-based online time series forecasting framework that leverages a pre-trained LLM as the backbone online forecaster, motivated by its strong few-shot capabilities. For efficient online adaptation, CoSPOT keeps the LLM frozen and employs compositional spectral prompts grounded in frequency-domain bases to guide the model with the overall distribution of the input, thereby substantially reducing the number of parameters updated during the online phase. Specifically, CoSPOT decomposes time series into frequency bases and composes the corresponding spectral basis prompts according to their amplitudes, allowing unseen patterns to be represented as new combinations of learned basis prompts. Our extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority and practicality of CoSPOT across challenging online scenarios, including extended online phases and cross-dataset settings with substantial distribution shifts. Our code is available at https://github.com/seungyoon-Choi/CoSPOT.
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