arXiv:2609.02638cs.LG2026-09

不同链接预测模型互补性显著,但组合效果有上限。

Oracle, will I ever learn? A study of prediction convergence and complementarity across link prediction models

论文配图:Oracle, will I ever learn? A study of prediction convergence and complementarity across link prediction models
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用最优模型选择器衡量不同模型的互补性
  • 单个模型性能与组合上限间存在明显差距
  • 多模型组合后仍有部分问题无法解决

知识图谱已成为网络应用中结构化知识的重要来源,涵盖搜索、问答和推荐系统。链接预测既可作为独立任务,也可用于补全不完整知识图谱以支持下游任务。然而,不同链接预测模型甚至同一模型的不同训练结果,对相同查询会产生显著不同的预测,表明模型对底层知识的捕捉存在差异。这引出一个根本问题:不同模型在多大程度上捕捉了互补知识?通过组合它们又能恢复多少?本文提出通过一个“预言机”模型来评估互补性——该模型对每个查询从一组模型中选择最佳预测,从而给出组合性能的理论上限。在多个架构和基准测试中,我们发现个体模型与该预言机之间存在显著差距,表明模型间确实存在互补知识。然而,随着加入更多模型,互补性迅速饱和,仍有一部分查询无法被大量模型共同解决。这些发现揭示了模型组合的潜力,也指出了当前链接预测模型集体能力的根本局限,凸显了构建更稳健网络应用的必要性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Knowledge graphs have become an important source of structured knowledge for Web applications, including search, question answering, and recommender systems. In these applications, link prediction can serve either as a prediction task itself or as a means to enrich incomplete knowledge graphs for downstream tasks. Interestingly, different link prediction models, or even different training runs of the same model, can produce substantially different predictions for the same query. This suggests a variability in the capture of the underlying knowledge by models, thus raising a fundamental question: to what extent do different models capture complementary knowledge, and how much of this knowledge could be recovered by combining them? We propose to measure model complementarity through the performance of an oracle that, for each query, selects the best prediction among a considered set of models, hence providing an upper bound on the performance achievable through model combination. Across several architectures and benchmarks, we find a substantial gap between individual models and their oracle, revealing that different models capture complementary knowledge. Yet, this complementarity rapidly saturates as more models are added, leaving a persistent subset of queries unsolved even by a large number of models. These findings reveal both the potential of model complementarity and a fundamental limit to what current link prediction models can collectively recover; thereby highlighting the need for further research to build robust Web applications.

知识图谱链接预测模型互补预言机

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