用神经网络替代传统模型中的固定特征,提升蝗虫栖息地预测精度。
Neural-Network Maxent: a general extension with learned nonlinearity, applied to time-series for Desert Locust distribution modelling

- 用GRU网络自动学习环境时间序列的非线性特征
- 在50天环境数据上实现0.862的AUC,优于传统模型
- 适合需要时序建模的生态预测任务
物种分布建模对理解环境如何影响生物多样性至关重要,尤其对于沙漠蝗虫这类受环境快速变化影响的破坏性害虫。传统Maxent方法依赖人工设计的线性特征组合,难以捕捉生态监测中常见的非线性和时序关系。标准做法将时间序列特征展平,丢失了关键的时间结构。本文提出RNN Maxent,用门控循环单元(GRU)替换固定特征字典,通过反向传播端到端训练,保留Maxent的概率校准与背景归一化机制,仅将非线性部分改为数据驱动。在基于ERA5 Land、MODIS和Sentinel 3的50天环境时间序列上应用,以7天时间间隔匹配存在记录,实现预测行为。相比标准Maxent,RNN Maxent在多个指标上表现更优:ROC AUC达0.862(标准差0.036),高于对照组的0.792;F1得分0.671(标准差0.056),优于对照组的0.590。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) is essential for understanding how environmental conditions shape biodiversity, particularly for destructive pests such as the Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria), whose breeding dynamics are tightly coupled to rapidly evolving environmental conditions. Maxent has become the dominant method for presence-only data, but its reliance on a linear combination of hand chosen feature transforms limits its ability to capture the nonlinear, temporal relationships common in ecological monitoring, where covariates such as precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation indices evolve meaningfully over time. Standard implementations flatten time-series covariates into independent features, discarding sequential structure that carries critical signal. We introduce RNN Maxent, an extension of the Maxent framework that replaces the fixed feature dictionary with a neural network, specifically a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), trained end to end via backpropagation. The approach preserves Maxent's presence only statistical foundations, background normalization, and probability calibration, differing only in that the nonlinearity is learned from data rather than fixed in advance. We apply RNN Maxent to map suitable habitat for the Desert Locust using 50 day environmental time series derived from ERA5 Land, MODIS, and Sentinel 3, maintaining a 7 day gap between covariates and presence records to yield forecasting behavior. Compared against standard Maxent, RNN Maxent improves performance across metrics (ROC AUC 0.862 std 0.036 vs. 0.792; F1 0.671 std 0.056 vs. 0.590).
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