arXiv:2609.03810cs.IR2026-09

用图结构还原棒球投球序列,精准分析策略模式。

Unified Pitch Graphs for Diagnosing Pitching Strategy

论文配图:Unified Pitch Graphs for Diagnosing Pitching Strategy
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建分层图模型,保留每球三维轨迹与上下文顺序
  • 支持自适应回退,长序列覆盖率从18.9%提升至94.9%
  • 可发现离散表示无法捕捉的执行细微变化,适合战术分析

棒球投球策略既体现在物理执行上,也体现在投球顺序的上下文中。现有方法常将投球简化为类别或统计聚合,丢失细节。我们提出统一投球图(UPG),一种用于回顾性分析时序时空事件的分层图结构。UPG保留每球为精确事件,重建其三维轨迹,通过有向序列边连接连续投球,并在语义与时间尺度上组织相同事件。当重复证据不足时,支持自适应机制回退至较粗粒度序列,同时保持事件完整溯源。我们在2021至2026年大联盟394万次Statcast投球数据上评估。名义相同的投球序列呈现显著物理执行差异,更长上下文路径的有序性愈发明显。支持自适应回退使保留路径覆盖率从18.9%提升至94.9%,执行重建精度从R²=0.495提升至0.685。UPG还能可靠定位离散投球组合与序列无法检测的受控执行变化。结果表明,UPG提供了可追溯、多尺度的表示,用于识别重复策略模式,避免将回溯关联误当作因果或未来表现预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Pitching strategy in baseball is expressed through both physical execution and the ordered context in which pitches are used, yet common representations collapse pitches into discrete types or aggregate statistics. We present Unified Pitch Graphs (UPG), a hierarchical graph representation for retrospective analysis of sequential spatiotemporal events. UPG preserves each pitch as an exact event with reconstructed three-dimensional trajectory and context, connects consecutive pitches through directed sequence edges, and organizes the same events across semantic and temporal resolutions. A support-adaptive mechanism backs off from fine, long sequences when repeated evidence is insufficient, while retaining exact event lineage. We evaluate UPG on 3.94 million MLB Statcast pitches from 2021 to 2026. Nominally identical pitch sequences exhibit distinct physical executions, and ordered structure becomes increasingly evident in longer context-conditioned paths. Support-adaptive backoff increases held-out path coverage from 18.9\% to 94.9\% while improving execution reconstruction from $R^2=0.495$ to $0.685$. UPG also reliably localizes controlled execution changes that discrete pitch-mix and sequence representations cannot detect. These results demonstrate that UPG provides a traceable, multi-scale representation for identifying recurring strategy patterns without conflating retrospective associations with causal or future-performance claims.

棒球分析图神经网络序列建模

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