让表格大模型适配生存分析,不同接口效果因数据规模而异。
Adaptation Interfaces for In-Context Tabular Foundation Models in Time-to-Event Prediction
- 用Cox、DeepHit等接口连接表格大模型与生存分析任务
- 小数据集零样本有效,大数据集需微调,Cox在大样本上最优
- 适合做生存分析的迁移学习研究者参考
表格基础模型(TabFMs)在结构化数据分类与回归任务中表现优异,但扩展至右删失时间-事件预测仍具挑战,需妥善处理删失与事件时间动态。基于前期工作,我们进一步将TabFMs与CoxPH和DeepHit结合,并优化了上下文重采样训练流程。在74个单风险数据集及4个竞争风险数据集上评估了零样本重构、基于分类的微调和生存头适配方法,使用冻结的TabFM主干网络。结果显示,小数据集上零样本推理有效,随数据量增大,监督适配优势显现;Cox接口在大样本上对集成Brier得分(IBS)表现最稳定;DeepHit在时变一致性指数上更优,而竞争风险分析中因果特异性MTLR性能最佳。分类微调随数据增长提升竞争力,但在概率预测上仍弱于零样本。结果表明,有效迁移依赖数据规模与适配接口的统计结构匹配。代码已公开于https://github.com/kaylode/survival-fm。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Tabular foundation models (TabFMs) achieve strong performance on structured data, particularly for standard classification and regression problems. Yet, extending them to censored time-to-event prediction is challenging because it requires properly handling censoring and event-time dynamics. Building on our prior work, we further link TabFMs with CoxPH and DeepHit and revise the context-resampled training procedure. We evaluate temporal zero-shot reformulation, classification-based fine-tuning, and survival-head adaptation using frozen TabFM backbones on 74 single-risk data sets, and we additionally study 4 competing-risk data sets. Zero-shot inference is effective on smaller single-risk data sets, whereas supervised adaptation becomes increasingly advantageous as data sets scale. Cox provides the most reliably strong interface, especially for Integrated Brier Score (IBS) on larger data sets. DeepHit is relatively stronger for the time-dependent Concordance Index than for IBS, while cause-specific MTLR ranks highest among the TabFM survival heads in the four-data-set competing-risk analysis. Classification fine-tuning becomes more competitive with zero-shot inference as data sets grow but remains weaker for probabilistic prediction. Overall, our results indicate that effective TabFM transfer depends on the data regime and on the statistical structure represented by the chosen adaptation interface. The implementation scripts used for this work are available at https://github.com/kaylode/survival-fm.
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