arXiv:2609.04917cs.AIq-fin.PM2026-09

AI在金融投资中进展显著,但能否盈利仍存疑。

Artificial Intelligence in Equity and Crypto Markets: Progress, Profitability Evidence, and the Limits of Automated Investing

  • 构建从数据到收益的完整评估链条,检验AI实际表现
  • 多数研究仅达预测与流程整合阶段,净收益证据薄弱
  • 强调前瞻性测试与真实执行环境,适合严谨投资者参考

人工智能已广泛应用于股票、交易所基金、中心化加密货币现货与永续合约、链上市场等投资全流程。然而技术能力不等于投资回报。本文综述截至2026年8月31日的公开研究,采用‘阿尔法转化链’框架:时点信息需转化为稳定信号、可行仓位、可执行订单及扣除成本后的风险调整收益。在机器学习、时间序列基础模型、金融语言模型、强化学习与智能体等领域,当前成果主要集中于预测、文本处理、组合设计与流程集成,但在持久净收益方面证据不足。时间污染、重复选择、幸存者偏差、弱基准、实施成本、交易机制与容量限制均可能阻碍转化为净阿尔法。历史表现强劲的同时,预测衰减、回测偏差、前瞻性证据混杂,且极少有经审计的真实资金记录。加密货币需区分现货、永续合约与去中心化现金流与执行。现有公开证据未显示任何通用AI架构能持续产生跨周期、容量感知的净阿尔法。更可信结论需依赖时点数据、目标对齐模型、联合组合-执行评估、受控适应、前瞻性测试与匹配治理结构。这些条件可提升证据质量与落地效果,但不保证盈利。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Artificial intelligence (AI) now supports investment workflows from data and prediction through research, portfolios, execution, and tool use. Technical capability, however, is not evidence of investment profitability. This critical state-of-the-art review examines public research available through 31 August 2026 on listed equities, exchange-traded funds, centralized crypto spot, perpetual futures, and on-chain markets. We organize evidence with an alpha-translation chain: point-in-time information must yield a stable signal, feasible positions, executable orders, and risk-adjusted returns after costs. Across machine learning, time-series foundation models, financial language models, reinforcement learning, and agents, the examined record shows real but mainly upstream progress in prediction, text processing, portfolio design, and workflow integration. Evidence is thinner for durable net performance. Temporal contamination, repeated selection, survivorship, weak benchmarks, implementation costs, venue mechanics, and capacity can break translation to net alpha. Strong historical results coexist with predictor decay, corrected look-ahead failures, mixed prospective evidence, and few audited live-capital records. Crypto adds informative state but requires separate treatment of spot, perpetual, and decentralized cash flows and execution. Within the public evidence examined here, no general AI architecture is shown to deliver persistent, cross-regime, capacity-aware net alpha. More credible claims require point-in-time data and models, decision-aligned objectives, joint portfolio--execution evaluation, controlled adaptation, prospective tests, and authority-matched governance. These conditions can improve evidence and implementation; they do not guarantee profit.

AI投资量化分析加密金融实证研究

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