用少量随机数据+大量观测数据,让网络假设分析更准更可靠。
Confounding-Valid Conformal Inference for Counterfactual KPIs in Wireless Networks

- 结合观测数据与有限随机数据,通过合成推理提升效率
- 在隐藏混淆下仍保持统计保证,预测集覆盖率高于现有方法
- 适合需要可靠‘假如’分析的无线网络运维人员
置信度反事实推断使网络运营商能利用记录的遥测数据可靠回答网络运行中的‘假如’问题。这些答案通常以预测集形式呈现,以用户设定的概率包含替代控制策略下的关键性能指标(KPI)。主要挑战在于,记录的遥测数据可能遗漏控制器使用的变量,导致隐藏混淆,破坏反事实分析的统计保证。理论上可通过独立于网络状态分配控制动作的随机遥测来解决,但此类随机化可能干扰正常运行,导致随机数据稀缺,仅依赖随机数据的反事实分析会产生信息量不足的预测集。为此,我们提出隐含混淆有效反事实置信推断(CV-CCI),基于通用合成驱动推断(GESPI)原则,将丰富的潜在混淆观测数据与有限的随机数据结合。CV-CCI利用观测数据提升效率,同时使用随机数据在任意隐藏混淆下维持有限样本覆盖率。在两个典型的无线接入网(RAN)控制任务上的实验表明,CV-CCI在隐藏混淆下依然有效,且相比最先进的混淆有效基线,生成更高效的预测集。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Conformal counterfactual inference enables network operators to use logged telemetry to reliably answer 'what-if' questions about network operation. These answers typically take the form of prediction sets that contain, with a user-defined probability, the key performance indicators (KPIs) that would have been observed under alternative control actions. A key challenge is that logged telemetry may omit variables used by the controller, resulting in hidden confounding and invalidating the statistical guarantees of counterfactual analysis. In principle, this issue can be addressed using randomized telemetry, collected by assigning control actions independently of the network state. However, because such randomization may disrupt normal operation, randomized telemetry is typically scarce, causing counterfactual analysis based solely on it to produce uninformative prediction sets. To address these challenges, we propose Confounding-Valid Counterfactual Conformal Inference (CV-CCI), which combines abundant, potentially confounded observational telemetry with limited randomized data through the General Synthetic-Powered Inference (GESPI) principle. CV-CCI leverages observational data to improve efficiency while using randomized data to retain finite-sample coverage guarantees under arbitrary hidden confounding. Experiments on two representative radio access network (RAN) control tasks show that CV-CCI remains valid under hidden confounding while producing more efficient prediction sets than state-of-the-art confounding-valid baselines.
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