arXiv:2609.05284cs.AI2026-09

用图复杂度量化大模型推理不确定性,提升推理可靠性

GUT: Quantifying and Optimizing the Reasoning Uncertainty of LLMs via Graph Complexity

论文配图:GUT: Quantifying and Optimizing the Reasoning Uncertainty of LLMs via Graph Complexity
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将推理过程建模为有向无环图,全面覆盖所有可能分支
  • 通过图复杂度衡量不确定性,实验显示可减少80%以上异常推理链
  • 适用于需要高可信推理的场景,如医疗、金融决策系统

近年来大语言模型(LLMs)的推理能力取得显著进展,但其推理过程常表现出不确定性:相同输入下产生大量分歧的推理路径,部分路径甚至包含明显荒谬或无意义的内容。本文提出基于图复杂度的推理不确定性量化与优化方法(GUT),核心思想是将每条推理链的潜在分支建模为有向无环图(DAG),从而在图空间中完整覆盖所有可能路径。在此基础上,构建两个模块:GUT-Q用于量化推理不确定性,通过图复杂度近似推理空间复杂度;GUT-O通过将负不确定性作为强化学习中的奖励函数,实现不确定性优化。在四个主流大模型和五个数据集上的实验验证了GUT的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent years have witnessed great advances in the reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the reasoning processes of LLMs often exhibit uncertainty, where LLMs often produce a proliferation of divergent branches at each reasoning step even when fed the same prompting inputs, and certain branches exhibit evidently incredible, even nonsensical, reasoning chains and results. In this paper, we propose the Graph-complexity-based UncerTainty (GUT) method for investigating the reasoning uncertainty of LLMs. The key idea of GUT is to characterize the potential branches of each reasoning chain with a directed acyclic graph, thereby ensuring that all potential branches are comprehensively covered within the graph space. Building upon this recognition, we further build two modules of GUT, that is, a Quantification (GUT-Q) module and an Optimization (GUT-O) module, for quantifying and reducing the reasoning uncertainty of LLMs, respectively. GUT-Q measures LLM reasoning uncertainty by approximating the reasoning space complexity with graph complexity. GUT-O implements uncertainty optimization by treating negative uncertainty as the reward function in reinforcement learning. Experimental results conducted on four LLMs and five datasets validate the effectiveness of GUT.

大模型推理不确定性量化图神经网络强化学习

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