arXiv:2609.05834cs.AI2026-09

让机器人在视线受阻时也能正确推理行动后果,避免误判相似外观的不同操作。

Learning Counterfactual World Models for Embodied Reasoning under Partial Observability

  • 用反事实对比目标训练世界模型,区分外观相似但行为后果不同的干预
  • 在遮挡推物任务中规划成功率从65.1%提升至74.6%,错误规划减少近一半
  • 可独立评估任意编码器的可行动性,适合研究具身智能与规划系统

世界模型为具身智能提供通用路径:学习一次预测动态,即可用于推理、规划和行动。当前模型多基于大规模视频、交互与多模态数据预训练,但仅靠预测质量无法判断表征是否真正可行动。我们发现一种称为反事实坍缩的失败模式:模型能生成视觉上合理的未来,却无法区分不同干预带来的行为后果。这源于表征优化目标侧重感知相似性而非干预结构,正是多数大规模预训练编码器的学习目标。为此提出反事实潜在世界模型(CLWM),结合循环信念状态编码器、动作条件的潜在动态与对比反事实目标,即使观测结果相似也能分离不同干预导致的未来。在遮挡操作、混淆导航与长时程操作任务中,CLWM规划成功率显著提升(如遮挡推物任务:65.1% → 74.6%;混淆迷宫:67.3% → 78.9%),并减少误导性规划(延迟厨房任务:18.4% → 9.7%)。消融实验表明,硬反事实负样本尤其关键。此外,我们提出的反事实可分性度量(与五类基线模型规划成功率相关系数r ≥ 0.94)具有表征无关性,只需干预-结果标签即可审计任何编码器(预训练或从零训练),但尚未在大规模预训练编码器上验证。本文确立该度量及其与规划成功的关系,适用于从零训练的世界模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

World models promise a general route to embodied intelligence: learn predictive dynamics once, then reason, plan, and act with them. Increasingly, the representations beneath such models are pretrained on large-scale video, interaction, and multimodal corpora, which raises a question prediction quality alone cannot answer: when is a learned representation actually actionable? We identify a failure mode we call counterfactual collapse: a model predicts visually plausible futures while failing to distinguish interventions with different behavioral consequences. This arises whenever a representation is optimized for perceptual similarity rather than intervention structure, which is precisely the objective under which most large-scale pretrained encoders are learned. We introduce Counterfactual Latent World Models (CLWM), which combine a recurrent belief-state encoder, action-conditioned latent dynamics, and a contrastive counterfactual objective that separates futures induced by distinct interventions even when their observations look alike. Across occluded manipulation, aliased navigation, and long-horizon manipulation, CLWM improves planning success over the strongest baseline (65.1% $\to$ 74.6% on Occluded Push and 67.3% $\to$ 78.9% on Aliased Maze) and reduces exploitative planning failures (18.4% $\to$ 9.7% on Deferred Kitchen), with ablations attributing the gains to hard counterfactual negatives, especially perceptual-alias negatives. Finally, our counterfactual separability metric, which tracks planning success across the five baseline model classes ($r \ge 0.94$), is representation-agnostic: given intervention-outcome labels, it can audit any encoder, pretrained or trained from scratch, before a planner trusts it. We do not yet measure it on large-scale pretrained encoders. Here we establish the metric and its relationship to planning success for world models trained from scratch.

具身智能世界模型反事实推理规划

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