arXiv:2609.06194cs.AIcs.LG2026-09

用天气数据预测风机功率,帮运维选低效时段安排检修。

Predicting Wind Turbine Power Using Machine Learning and Weather Forecasts

  • 用神经网络结合天气预报预测风机功率,避免依赖复杂历史数据。
  • 模型达R2=0.98,误差仅194千瓦,优于线性模型。
  • 可推广至不同地点风机,适合风电运维优化场景。

海上风力涡轮机广泛用于可再生能源生产,但强制停机导致维护效率下降。准确预测风机功率可识别低效期,便于安排维护。然而,数据量、特征选择与数据预处理对预测模型性能的影响尚未深入研究,且现有模型跨风机迁移能力有限。本研究构建线性回归基线模型,并对比更复杂的神经网络模型,仅使用气象条件进行预测,提升适用性。考察多种数据预处理方法,分别在一个月和一年数据上训练模型,评估数据量与预处理影响。通过随机森林回归器进行特征选择。最佳模型结果显示,神经网络表现最优,R2得分为0.98,平均绝对误差为194千瓦,显著优于基线模型(R2=0.94,MAE=441)。模型性能与以往研究相当,优势在于采用邻近气象站独立数据集,可应用于不同位置的类似风机。进一步使用神经网络识别未来两个月内连续4小时低功率时段,单次维护可节省约2000千瓦功率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Offshore wind turbines are widely used to generate renewable energy, but their maintenance can result in decreased efficiency due to forced shutdowns. Accurate wind turbine power predictions can identify periods of low power that would be ideal for scheduling maintenance. However, the effects of data volume, feature selection, and data preprocessing on the performance of such power prediction models have not been thoroughly studied. Besides, current models have limited transferability between different wind turbines. Therefore, this study developed a baseline Linear Regression for performance comparison with a more complex Artificial Neural Network model to predict the power output of a wind turbine, using weather conditions only to enhance applicability. A range of data preprocessing techniques were studied, and models were trained on one month and one year of data to determine the effects of data preprocessing and volume on model performance. Feature selection was explored using a Random Forest Regressor. The best results from the different models showed that the Artificial Neural Network models provided the highest accuracy, with an R2 score of 0.98 and a low Mean Absolute Error of 194, when compared with the baseline model (R2 score of 0.94 and Mean Absolute Error of 441). The model performance is comparable to the range of results in past studies, with the advantage that the proposed method leverages a separate weather dataset from a nearby weather station, enabling future applications for similar wind turbines in different locations. The Artificial Neural Network model was then used to identify 4-h periods of low power predictions over 2 months (simulating application for future periods), providing power output savings of approximately 2000 kW for each maintenance event.

风力发电机器学习功率预测运维优化

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