arXiv:2609.06656cs.LGcs.AI2026-09

用预训练时序模型做电网负荷预测,调优后效果好但零样本表现弱。

Assessing Covariate-Informed Grid Load Forecasting with a Time-Series Foundation Model

  • 用Chronos-2模型融合外部变量进行多变量负荷预测。
  • 微调后短期预测误差低于专用模型,零样本误差更高。
  • 适合有历史数据可微调的电力公司实用场景。

现代电力系统因整合多样发电源而日益复杂,准确负荷预测面临挑战。近年来,时间序列基础模型(TSFMs)在零样本单变量负荷预测中表现良好,但在真实场景中常需处理多目标变量并融合外生变量,其实际效用仍待验证。本文以亚马逊开发的Chronos-2为例,评估其在多通道时序建模中的表现,涵盖单变量、多变量及协变量信息预测。我们在两个真实电力数据集ISO New England和ENTSO-E上测试该模型,并与主流专用深度学习模型对比。结果表明,Chronos-2经任务特定微调后,在短时预测中表现优异,但零样本精度低于专用模型,且预测步数增加时误差增长更快。本研究系统揭示了此类模型在电网负荷预测中的优势与局限,为预训练时序模型在实际运行中的有效适配提供了实践指导。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modern power systems are growing increasingly complex as they integrate diverse generation sources to meet rising demand, making accurate load forecasting challenging. Recent advances in time-series foundation models (TSFMs) resulted in promising performance in zero-shot univariate load forecasting tasks. However, real-world load forecasting often involves multiple target variables and requires the integration of exogenous variables, raising important questions about the utility of TSFMs in realistic settings. In this study, we position Chronos-2, a recently developed model by Amazon, as a representative multi-channel TSFM that supports univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting, and conduct a systematic investigation of how such models can be used for real-world load forecasting. While prior work has evaluated Chronos-2 on a limited number of energy-related tasks in a zero-shot setting, its performance relative to established task-specific deep learning models and its behavior when adapted using task-specific historical data remains insufficiently understood. In this work, we evaluate Chronos-2 on two real-world utility datasets, ISO New England and ENTSO-E, and benchmark it against widely used task-specific deep learning models. Our results show that Chronos-2 benefits substantially from task-specific fine-tuning and achieves strong short-horizon forecasting performance, but its zero-shot accuracy lags behind task-specific models and its forecasting error grows more rapidly with increasing forecast steps. Overall, this study provides a detailed characterization of the strengths and limitations of TSFMs such as Chronos-2 in grid load forecasting and offers practical insights into how a pretrained TSFM can be effectively adapted for operational load forecasting applications.

负荷预测时序模型电力系统微调

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