arXiv:2609.06961cs.AI2026-09

提出物理约束模型,让车队轨迹预测既准又稳。

SSP-DMGTimeNet: Physics-Constrained Learning for Spatiotemporal Trajectory Prediction of Vehicle Platoons

论文配图:SSP-DMGTimeNet: Physics-Constrained Learning for Spatiotemporal Trajectory Prediction of Vehicle Platoons
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 融合多尺度时序与车辆交互,建模车队动态
  • 传播延迟注意力机制,显式捕捉扰动传递
  • 引入串稳定性损失,提升长队列预测可靠性

现有跟车预测方法主要优化轨迹精度,却很少考虑预测扰动是否沿车队真实传播。这一局限可能导致预测轨迹准确但不稳定。本文提出SSP-DMGTimeNet,一种面向车队时空轨迹预测的物理约束学习框架。模型结合多尺度时间表示与跨车交互特征,捕捉复杂且时变的车队动态。通过传播延迟感知的因果注意力机制,显式建模相邻车辆间的响应延迟并沿车队累积,从而模拟上游到下游的扰动传播。此外,引入时域与频域的串稳定性损失,在训练中缓解相邻车辆及任意子车队间的扰动放大。在HighD数据集上,五车车队的不稳定窗口率仅为0.65%,地面真值激励子集上的头尾放大倍数最大为0.898,同时保持优异的轨迹预测性能。零样本评估在NGSIM US-101和I-80上,速度平均绝对误差分别为1.316 m/s和1.252 m/s,不稳定窗口率分别为3.90%和4.10%。结果表明,融入车队级物理约束能有效平衡预测精度与扰动传播稳定性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Existing car-following prediction methods mainly optimize trajectory accuracy, while rarely considering whether predicted disturbances propagate realistically along a vehicle platoon. This limitation may lead to accurate but string-unstable predictions. We propose SSP-DMGTimeNet, a physics-constrained learning framework for spatiotemporal trajectory prediction of vehicle platoons. The model combines multi-scale temporal representations with cross-vehicle interaction features to capture complex and time-varying platoon dynamics. A propagation-delay-aware causal attention mechanism explicitly models upstream-to-downstream disturbance propagation by learning response delays between adjacent vehicles and accumulating them along the platoon. In addition, time- and frequency-domain string-stability losses relieve disturbance amplification across both adjacent vehicles and arbitrary sub-platoons during training. Experiments on HighD show that SSP-DMGTimeNet achieves an unstable-window rate of 0.65\% for five-vehicle platoons and a maximum head-to-tail amplification of 0.898 on the ground-truth excitation subset, while maintaining competitive trajectory prediction performance. In zero-shot evaluation on NGSIM US-101 and I-80, the model achieves velocity MAEs of 1.316~m/s and 1.252~m/s, with unstable-window rates of 3.90\% and 4.10\%, respectively. These results demonstrate that incorporating platoon-level physical constraints can effectively balance trajectory prediction accuracy and disturbance propagation stability.

轨迹预测车队控制物理约束序列建模

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