仅用城市聚合数据就能推断出人流方向,不依赖个人追踪。
Inferring Urban Mobility Interactions from Aggregated Dynamics
- 用物理启发的不确定性模型从区域计数推断出行流
- 在12个中外城市的测试中达到与历史流向模型相当的精度
- 适合关注隐私保护的城市智能系统研究者
实时城市治理不仅需要知道人们在何处,还需了解他们如何在不同地点间移动。传统方法依赖个体空间轨迹追踪,成本高且易被重识别。本文表明,无需直接观测流向即可推断其结构:城市已收集的聚合计数包含足够信息,可重建起讫点(OD)矩阵的时序演变。基于不确定性感知的物理信息框架,仅使用区域级计数,在美国与中国12个城市的多组数据上成功预测未来OD流,性能接近以历史OD矩阵为输入的模型。概率建模有效纠正了稀疏高价值走廊的系统性低估,生成与实际流动一致的校准预测。遵循交通规划中“生成先于分配”逻辑的架构,更准确恢复交互关系,表明应在重建成对互动前保留位置级空间异质性。由于推理阶段仅需训练后聚合观测,该方法大幅降低对持续个体追踪的依赖,为实时城市智能提供更具可部署性、低暴露风险的新基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Real-time urban governance depends not only on knowing where people are, but on how they move between places, directional flows that could be conventionally resolved by tracking individuals through space, i.e., expensive to sustain and built on traces that are highly unique and readily re-identifiable. Here we show that this directional structure need not be observed to be known: aggregated counts which cities already collect retain enough information to reconstruct the temporal evolution of origin-destination (OD) matrix. Using an uncertainty-aware physics-informed framework, we infer future OD flows from area-level counts alone across twelve mobility datasets from cities in the United States and China, reaching accuracy comparable to models that take historical OD matrices as input. Probabilistic modeling corrects the systematic underestimation of sparse, high-value corridors and yields calibrated predictions consistent with observed flows. Architectures that respect the generation-before-assignment logic of transport planning recover interactions more faithfully, indicating that location-level spatial heterogeneity should be preserved before pairwise interactions are reconstructed. Because inference requires only aggregated observations after training, recovering interactions this way reduces reliance on continuous individual-level tracking, pointing toward a more deployable and less exposure-heavy basis for real-time urban intelligence.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。