arXiv:2609.07533cs.AI2026-09

提出按预测时域动态提取特征的新方法,提升工业设备维护预测精度。

Quantile-Led Feature Extraction for Multi-Horizon Predictive Maintenance in Industrial Manufacturing Systems

  • 基于双阶段MLP-QRNN架构,按分位数动态生成传感器特征
  • 保留2~4个中尾部分位数可使1小时与70小时预测F1提升至75.92%和72.44%
  • 特征提取需随预测时域调整,否则性能显著下降

在数据驱动的预测性维护(PdM)中,特征提取通常作为固定预处理步骤:选定一组描述符后重复使用,无论下游模型或预测时域如何变化。本文将表示学习阶段独立出来,提出一种基于双阶段MLP-QRNN层次结构的分位数引导特征提取框架。QRNN1为每个传感器通道学习一个包含10个分位数的条件分布,而跳接连接的QRNN2将保留的中尾部分位数集进一步精炼为紧凑、通道解析且具备分布感知特性的特征。通过固定十三管道的消融实验,在9个工业设施中的72台设备上覆盖1小时、70小时和30天三种预测时段,每个时段内下游时间分类器保持不变。将保留的中尾部分位数从2个增加到4个,可使30分钟和60分钟的F1分数分别提升至75.92%和72.44%(启用注意力机制)。结果表明,除非特征容量、时间嵌入、激活策略和传感器范围随预测任务同步扩展,否则表征无法可靠迁移至设计时域之外。未修改的短时域提取器在70小时时性能降至42.90% F1,而时域适配的提取器在70小时和30天时分别达到60.38%和79.97%的性能。因此,该框架支持将PdM特征提取视为时域相关的表示阶段,而非固定预处理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In data-driven predictive maintenance (PdM), feature extraction is usually treated as fixed preprocessing: a descriptor set is chosen once and reused while the downstream model or forecasting horizon changes. This paper isolates the representation-learning stage and presents a quantile-led feature-extraction framework based on a dual-stage MLP-QRNN hierarchy. QRNN1 learns a broad ten-quantile conditional distribution for each sensor channel, while skip-connected QRNN2 refines a retained mid-tail quantile set into compact, channel-resolved, distribution-aware features. A fixed thirteen-pipeline ablation spans 1-hour, 70-hour, and 30-day regimes across 72 machines in 9 industrial facilities, with the downstream temporal classifier held fixed within each regime. Increasing the retained mid-tail set from two to four quantiles improves 30- and 60-minute F1-score, reaching 75.92% and 72.44% with attention enabled. The results also show that representations do not transfer reliably beyond their design horizon unless feature capacity, temporal embedding, activation strategy, and sensor breadth are scaled with the forecasting task. The unmodified short-horizon extractor falls to 42.90% F1 at 70 hours, whereas horizon-conditioned extractors reach 60.38% at 70 hours and 79.97% at 30 days. The framework therefore supports treating PdM feature extraction as a horizon-dependent representational stage rather than fixed preprocessing.

预测性维护分位数建模多时域预测

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