通过影响函数定位训练数据中对疾病年龄差异贡献最大的样本。
Attributing Cohen's d: Training Data Attribution for Disease-Related Effects in Normative Age Biomarkers
- 直接用Cohen's d的闭式影响函数追踪每个训练样本的影响
- 移除10%最影响的样本后,多病种效应量翻倍或提升三分之一
- 可发现未被诊断出但已有亚临床代谢问题的个体,适合临床研究
正常年龄模型在健康人群中训练以预测实际年龄,应用于患者时出现偏差,该偏差被视为疾病风险。本文不再以预测损失为归因目标,而是直接将疾病相关效应大小(Cohen's d)归因于单个训练样本。所提出的闭式影响函数经留一法重训练验证,能有效排序训练样本对独立病例-对照分离度的影响。在英国生物银行的四个疾病和两种生物标志物模态中,移除10%最具影响力的训练样本后,所有种子实验的疾病相关效应量均上升:代谢组年龄对2型糖尿病的效应量翻倍,脑龄对多发性硬化症的效应量提升约三分之一。随机移除50%样本则效应量不变,说明提升来自样本选择而非数量。被标记的个体表现出未被诊断出的亚临床心代谢负担,且其特征是模型从未见过的指标。对2型糖尿病而言,恢复的关键标志物为标准血糖控制指标HbA1c。我们发布了pyinfluence工具包以支持复现与再利用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Normative age models are trained to predict chronological age in a nominally healthy cohort. Applied to patients, they deviate, and the gap between predicted and chronological age is read as disease risk. Here, we attribute the disease-related effect size of the age gap directly to individual training samples, rather than using a prediction-level loss as the attribution target. For Cohen's $d$, the resulting closed-form influence functional, validated against leave-one-out retraining, ranks training samples by their effect on held-out case-control separation. Across four diseases and two biomarker modalities in UK Biobank, removing the 10% most influential training samples raises held-out disease-related effect size in every seed. It more than doubles the metabolomic-age effect for type-2 diabetes and raises the brain-age effect for multiple sclerosis by roughly a third. Random removal leaves effect size flat even at 50% removal, confirming the gain comes from which samples are removed, not how many. Flagged subjects carry subclinical cardiometabolic burden that diagnosis-based exclusion misses, on markers the model never sees. For type-2 diabetes, where the method gains most, the marker recovered is HbA1c, the standard measure of blood sugar control. We release pyinfluence, our influence-function package, for reproducibility and reuse.
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