arXiv:2609.07917cs.LGcs.AI2026-09

提出新框架,让因果解释更稳定可靠。

AVCG: A Generalized Variational Framework for Counterfactual Generation under Hypothesis Distributions

论文配图:AVCG: A Generalized Variational Framework for Counterfactual Generation under Hypothesis Distributions
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用概率分布代替单一预测模型,统一处理不确定性
  • 在多个数据集上验证,解释有效性提升明显
  • 适合关注模型鲁棒性的研究人员

因果解释通过识别输入实例的修改以获得期望的替代预测来形式化“如果……会怎样”的情景。传统方法依赖于单一确定性预测器,忽略预测不确定性和假设变化,导致解释在模型重训练后常失效。为此,我们提出自洽变分因果生成器(AVCG),一种广义优化框架,将因果生成建模为对任意合理预测假设分布的优化,而非单一确定性预测器。该框架可统一处理贝叶斯后验、Rashomon受限假设空间及其他不确定性表示。在多个基准数据集上的评估表明,AVCG生成的因果解释在预测不确定性与模型更新下仍保持高度有效性,同时维持了良好的合理性与单次前向传播的运行效率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Counterfactual explanations formalize "what-if" scenarios by identifying modifications to an input instance that obtain a desired alternative prediction. Traditionally, whether generated via instance-specific optimization or amortized single pass models, these approaches rely on a single, deterministic point-estimate predictor. However, this ignores predictive uncertainty and hypothesis variability, leading to brittle explanations that frequently become invalid if the underlying model is retrained or updated. To address this fragility, we propose the Amortized Variational Counterfactual Generator (AVCG), a generalized optimization framework that formulates counterfactual generation as optimization over an arbitrary distribution of plausible predictive hypotheses rather than a single deterministic predictor. This formulation naturally accommodates Bayesian posteriors, Rashomon-restricted hypothesis spaces, and other uncertainty representations within a unified optimization framework. Evaluation across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrates that the AVCG framework produces counterfactual explanations that remain highly valid under predictive uncertainty and model changes, while maintaining competitive plausibility and single-pass runtime performance.

因果推理不确定性建模生成模型

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