arXiv:2609.08003cs.AI2026-09

用模拟数据训练的理论能跨到真人实验中,效果接近直接从真人数据中发现的理论。

Sparks of In Silico Cognitive Science: Theories from Simulated Data Can Generalize to Humans

论文配图:Sparks of In Silico Cognitive Science: Theories from Simulated Data Can Generalize to Humans
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用大模型自动设计实验、比对理论并迭代,全在行为模拟器Centaur上运行
  • 在多属性决策任务中,模拟发现的理论在10个新实验上超越经典理论
  • 即使模拟器不完美,只要能区分理论差异,就能有效拓展理论搜索空间

行为基础模型被提出作为各类场景下人类参与者的替代,但其发现的理论是否能推广到真实人类,还是仅反映模拟器特性尚不明确。我们运行了自动化认知科学家(AutoCog)——一个闭环发现系统:由大语言模型代理在Centaur(一个人类行为基础模型)生成的行为数据上,自主设计区分理论的实验、收集响应、仲裁竞争理论,并合成新一代理论。在多属性决策设置中,AutoCog在Centaur上发现的理论成功推广至真人数据:在10个保留实验中表现优于经典理论,仅略逊于直接在真人数据上运行相同闭环所获理论。我们认为该结果虽依赖模拟器的不完美性,但因发现循环通过理论仲裁降低了对模拟器精度的要求,只需捕捉能区分理论的规律即可,不必精确复现行为。因此,不完美的模拟器可扩大理论探索范围,再以真人数据验证理论的泛化能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Behavioral foundation models have been proposed as stand-ins for human participants across settings, but it is unclear whether theories discovered on them generalize to humans or merely characterize the simulator. We ran the Automated Cognitive Scientist (\textsc{AutoCog}), a closed-loop discovery system in which LLM agents design theory-discriminating experiments, collect responses, arbitrate between competing theories, and synthesize successors, entirely on behavior simulated by Centaur, a foundation model of human behavior. In a multi-attribute decision-making setting, the theories \textsc{AutoCog} found on Centaur generalized to human data: they outperformed canonical theories on ten held-out experiments and were rivaled only by theories found by running the same loop on people. We argue that this succeeds despite the simulator's inevitable imperfections because a discovery loop that arbitrates between competing theories demands less of its simulator than estimation does. The simulator only needs to capture the regularities that distinguish the theories, and not necessarily reproduce behavior precisely. Imperfect simulators can therefore widen the search over theories, with human data then testing whether the surfaced theories generalize.

认知科学自动发现模拟实验理论泛化

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