让地球系统模型能响应用户干预,实现可调控的生态模拟。
Earth System World Model for What-If Simulations: A Case Study for Terrestrial Ecosystems

- 用状态变化自动构造动作监督,无需人工标注干预数据。
- 在六地区多林龄下保持长期模拟精度,支持结构化干预。
- 适合需要交互式探索的气候与生态研究者使用。
机器学习代理模型已成为加速昂贵地球系统模拟的关键工具,但现有方法多为被动预测器:仅在给定外部强迫下复现模拟轨迹,缺乏用户指定干预的显式交互机制。这限制了其在互动科研工作流和地球系统数字孪生中的应用。本文提出一种面向地球系统仿真的动作条件世界模型框架,将模拟轨迹重构为可控状态转移学习的监督信号。核心思想是过渡-动作预训练:将自然观测到的状态变化视为无标签的动作监督,使模型在不依赖人工标注干预的情况下,同时学习预定动态和动作驱动的响应。进一步引入掩码响应学习,以在部分状态修改下推断未观测变量并学习耦合系统依赖关系。我们在六个全球区域、多种林龄的生态系统动态上测试该框架。实验表明,模型在保持竞争性长时程模拟精度的同时,支持可控结构干预及耦合生态系统变量的连贯响应。结果表明,该框架为从被动地球系统代理迈向交互式、干预感知的科学替代模型提供了可行路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning emulators have become essential for accelerating expensive Earth-system simulations, but most existing approaches remain passive forecasters: they reproduce simulator trajectories under prescribed forcings without an explicit interaction mechanism for user-specified interventions. This limits their use in interactive scientific workflows and Earth-system digital twins, where users often need to explore how a system would respond if selected state components were changed. We propose an action-conditioned world-modeling framework for Earth-system emulation that reformulates simulator trajectories as supervision for controllable state-transition learning. The key idea is transition-action pretraining: naturally observed state changes are treated as label-free action supervision, allowing the model to learn both prescribed dynamics and action-conditioned responses without manually annotated interventions. We further introduce masked response learning to infer unobserved variables under partial state edits and learn coupled system dependencies. We test this framework on ecosystem dynamics across six global regions and multiple stand ages. Experiments show that the model preserves competitive long-horizon emulation accuracy while enabling controllable structural interventions and coherent responses in coupled ecosystem-cycle variables. These results suggest a practical route from passive Earth-system emulators toward interactive, intervention-aware scientific surrogates.
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