arXiv:2609.09140cs.LGcs.AI2026-09

NOAH模型可生成全流程患者健康轨迹,支持预测与干预模拟。

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

论文配图:NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用双向时间融合与变分潜空间建模连续病程与随机变化。
  • 基于55900万条临床事件训练,在30个疾病类别上表现优异。
  • 适合个性化医疗、疾病预测与临床决策支持场景使用。

医疗数字化产生了海量、纵向且多模态的终身患者记录,但如何充分挖掘这些数据以表征和预测患者状态演变仍是重大挑战。现有AI模型难以捕捉真实世界多模态数据中复杂的不规则时序动态与内在随机性。当前方法多为判别式,仅处理少数模态,受限于封闭类别词表,将时间视为单调归纳偏置,或在预测未来状态方面能力有限。本文提出NOAH——一种时间感知、任务无关的生成式变压器模型,用于表征与预测完整的多模态患者旅程。NOAH采用新颖的双向时间整合机制与变分潜空间,捕捉患者状态的连续演化及临床轨迹的随机性。模型基于超过5.59亿条临床事件(来自MIMIC数据集家族中的29.9万名患者、43.1万次住院),原生处理医学图像、时序信号、数值数据、分类事件以及结构化与非结构化临床记录。NOAH是该领域首个真正全面的生成模型,支持自回归预测(可选时间控制)、零样本分类与反事实干预模拟。其生成的患者状态表示具有高度信息量与预测力,在探测15个ICD章节、29种共病及生存时间预测任务中表现突出。能够无缝处理多种模态与复杂时序动态,为个性化临床护理与数字医疗中的智能预测系统提供通用、任务无关、可扩展的基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The digitization of healthcare has generated vast, longitudinal, and multimodal patient records over a lifetime, yet fully exploiting these data to represent and predict patient state trajectories remains a critical challenge. Current AI models often struggle to capture the complex, irregular temporal dynamics and inherent stochasticity of real-world multimodal patient data. Existing AI approaches for modeling longitudinal patient records are predominantly discriminative, limited to a few modalities, constrained by closed categorical vocabularies, treating time as a monotonic inductive bias, or they are limited in forecasting future patient states. We introduce NOAH, a time-aware, task-agnostic, generative transformer model representing and forecasting the full multimodal patient journey. NOAH features a novel bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to capture the continuous evolution of patient states and the stochasticity of clinical trajectories. Built from over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits of 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family, NOAH natively processes medical images, time-series and numeric signals, categorical events, as well as structured and unstructured clinical records. NOAH is the first truly holistic generative model in its field, enabling autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation. It generates highly informative and predictive patient state representations that demonstrate strong performance in probing for clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities, as well as in time-to-event prediction. Seamlessly handling diverse modalities and complex temporal dynamics, NOAH provides a versatile, task-agnostic, scalable foundation for intelligent predictive systems in personalized clinical care and digital medicine.

医疗人工智能多模态建模时间序列预测生成模型

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